Forty-five thousand years of human life have been lost because of the Volkswagen diesel scandal. Findings by Nijmegen researchers indicate this. And if nothing happens soon, that amount will only get higher.

We already know that Volkswagen made a mess by using “defeat-device” cheating software in its diesel cars. But the actual damage to public health remained unclear for a long time. This week Nijmegen researchers found that because of the polluting cars, 45,000 healthy years of life have already been lost in the United States and in Europe. And if the faulty diesels aren’t recalled, another 72,000 life years are in danger.

‘When I saw those numbers for the first time, I was shocked,’ says researcher Rik Oldenkamp, environmental scientist at Radboud University. ‘Volkswagen will not be happy with this. I haven’t contacted them, but I believe there will be a German press release. Our research will probably end up on their desks eventually. I hope that it will create awareness of the consequences of this kind of tampering – not just with the car manufacturers but also with the public.’

Method
The main challenge for the researchers was to calculate how much extra nitrogen oxide was emitted by the dirty diesels. ‘First, we calculated how many Volkswagen diesel cars were sold each year from 2009 to 2015 by looking at various reports,’ Oldenkamp says. ‘Next, we tried to figure out how many kilometers each car drove. That is difficult, as it varies by age and the country in which the car is driven.’

‘When you know the amount of kilometers driven, you can calculate the total emission and compare it to the legal limits,’ Oldenkamp explains. ‘According to our research, the difference was 526 kilotons of nitrogen oxide, which equals 45,000 lost years of healthy life. 44,000 of those years were lost in Europe.’ The difference between the US and Europe is so big because population density in Europe is much higher and more Volkswagens are driven there.

The lost lives are worth 29 billion euros, according to the value of statistical life method. Volkswagen freed an amount of 5.5 billion euros to deal with the consequences of the fraud. ‘If you look at our research, that amount is way too low.’ / Tim van Ham